Game flow and win probability: the story of a game

Open the Game flow tab of a game and you get the story of the game in a few lines, and under it a chart of how it was played. It shows when the game was decided, which run did it, and how likely each team was to win at every moment.

The story in a glance

The headline says what kind of game it was, for example Koritehdas took control in the middle of the game, a comeback, or a game where nothing was settled until the end. Below it:

• Decided. From which moment the winner’s win probability stayed above 95%.
• Decisive stretch. The run that moved the game most, such as a 16–0 in the first quarter, and how it changed the win probability.
• Before the game. Who was the favourite, and by how much, based on roster strength and recent form.
• Closest call, comeback, last five minutes. Shown when the game had one.

Underlined moments light up on the chart when you hover over them.

The chart

• Score. Both teams’ points through the game, with the quarters shaded. Each basket is marked below the curve as a 1, 2 or 3 pointer.
• Win probability. Starts from the pre-game estimate and moves with every basket and with the time left. The dotted line marks the point of no return.
• Scoring runs and dry spells. Who scored several baskets in a row, and for how long a team went without a basket.
• Fouls and bonus. When a team went into the bonus, and every foul with the free throws it gave.

Hover or tap anything on the chart to see the details. Tight games also get a close-up of the final minutes.

Good to know

The chart uses the times when the bookkeeper recorded each basket, which are a little behind the real clock, so the times are estimates. It is only available for games that were recorded basket by basket. How the win probability is calculated is explained on How the predictions work.